World Population Day is observed on July 11 every year and the theme for World Population Day 2022 is “A world of 8 billion: Towards a resilient future for all – Harnessing opportunities and ensuring rights and choices for all”.
There have been growing concerns over the dynamics of the world’s population. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), by 2050, the world’s population aged 60 years and above will double to about 2.1 billion people. Due to people worldwide living longer with many of them expected to live beyond sixty years of age, countries worldwide are experiencing growth in both the size and proportion of older persons in their population.
The report by WHO also found that between 2015 and 2022, the world’s population that is aged above 60 years will double from 12% to 22%. In 2050, 80% of older people will belong to low and middle-income countries. Moreover, the number of people aged 80 years or older is expected to triple between 202o and 2050 to reach nearly 426 million.
How an older population will impact society
A rapidly ageing population means that there are fewer working-age people in the economy. As a result, there are supply shortages of workers who are qualified to perform given tasks, which can affect businesses negatively. There can be a potential decline in productivity, higher labour costs, delayed business expansion and reduced international competitiveness. In certain cases, because there is a supply shortage, the wages rate for each worker can rise, thereby causing inflation and creating a harmful cycle of a wage-price spiral, the economic theory that explains the cause and effect relationship between rising prices and rising wages.
Countries including China, India, Japan, Germany, Italy and Canada are already facing this problem. Not only is an ageing population unable to help in the workforce and expand the economy, but creating more funds for senior healthcare and maintaining pension funds payout will eat away from the capital that could be instead used for research and development, improving educational systems and technological advancements.
From a healthcare perspective, an older population could lead to a higher incidence of chronic-degenerative diseases and a higher demand for health and social care. This would ultimately require huge sums of capital to be spent on the healthcare system.
Having a higher ageing population could also have an effect on the nature and structure of families. Ageing can contribute to poor family relationships in many ways since older people are looked after by their families many of the time. Longer life expectancies coupled with age-related illnesses or disabilities can significantly prolong the care phase for the other family members. This places a lot of mental, physical and financial burden on the caregivers and can also place older people in vulnerable situations at an elevated risk of violence and abuse.
An older population also means that there are chances of lower migration. An ageing population tends to migrate less than a younger population. In addition, ageing could potentially lead to lower migration rates for workers of all ages since there can be a lower labour demand for migrants. This could, in turn, have adverse effects on the labour market and welfare.
A different world
According to a Pew Research Center Survey, whether people in different parts of the world deem a growing older population a problem varies dramatically. While the United States is less concerned about its ageing population, fears of the potential drawbacks are on the rise in parts of East Asia. Nine in ten Japanese, eight in ten South Koreans and seven in ten Chinese describe ageing as a major problem for their respective nations. Nearly half the public in Germany and Spain also agree that this is a major issue.
The Pew Research Center survey also found that there is a wide divergence in peoples’ confidence that they will have an adequate standard of living in their old age. Confidence was recorded as lowest in Japan, Italy and Russia since these are countries with a rapidly growing population of older people that is topped off with limited economic gains.
In terms of ageing in different parts of the world, Europe is currently the oldest region in the world and should continue to be so until 2050. Latin America and Asia are expected to age most rapidly through 2050. The median age in Latin America is presently 10 years younger than the median age in North America, but the levels are supposed to equal by 2050. Africa will continue to have the youngest population in the world.
